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Help link 01/05/2003; 9.31.23.


martedì 29 aprile 2003
 

E' un po' che volevo fare un post sulla SARS. Credo che l'allarmismo sia cablato nei nostri geni, e che quindi siamo necessariamente esposti a questo tipo di panico. Niente da meravigliarsi. La necessità di vendere i giornali poi aiuta, sarebbe bello analizzare come i giornali italiani sono passati senza soluzione di continuità da allarme guerra ad allarme virus.

Credo che i numeri della SARS siano effettivamente preoccupanti, perché una epidemia di solito segue una curva che si chiama logistica (sapevo che era stata scoperta da un italiano, ma temo che sia arrivato secondo) che all'inizio assomiglia ad un esponenziale. E benché le leggi esponenziali non possano durare nel tempo (con buona pace di chi le estrapola, vi ricordate quando dovevamo tutti morire di Aids? purtroppo è la fine che farà anche la legge di Moore), fa una certa differenza il fermarsi a mille, centomila o cento milioni di morti.

Oggi arriva una buona notizia: per i bambini piccoli i rischi sarebbero minori:

The study of 10 Hong Kong children showed that children under the age of eight suffered far milder symptoms than teenagers and adults.

Chiaro che 10 pazienti non sono un campione statisticamente troppo significativo, ma cerchiamo di essere ottimisti! Altre informazioni si possono trovare sul sito del WHO e sul CDC.

Cerchiamo anche di capire meglio i numeri. Senza tirare in ballo gli incidenti stradali e sul lavoro che da noi sono una vera vergogna, ogni giorno prendiamo rischi senza battere ciglio. Non voglio fare una tirata sul calcolo delle probabilità ma ricordo sempre una mia amica che in piena crisi mucca pazza mi raccontava di essere preoccupatissima mentre tirava nervosamente dalla sua sigaretta.


8:10:30 PM      comment []


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